Final polls show ‘yes’ leads ahead of Colombia’s peace vote

Colombia's signed peace agreement rests next to the bullet pen used to sign it. (Photo courtesy Presidencia de la Republica)
Colombia's signed peace agreement rests next to the bullet pen used to sign it. (Photo courtesy Presidencia de la Republica)

The day after the historic peace-accord-signing ceremony in Cartagena, a new poll continues to show overwhelming support for the “Yes” campaign in this weekend’s upcoming plebiscite vote to ratify the agreement.

Colombians will head to the ballot on Sunday, October 2, to make a simple “Yes” or “No” selection about whether the 297-page peace deal negotiated over four years in Cuba and officially signed yesterday will become law.

The “Yes” vote currently leads “No” by a margin of 55.0% to 36.8%, according to an opinion poll released today by Datexco and gathered between September 24-26. The support for both sides, among the 1,415 Colombians surveyed, has actually dropped since the company’s last results were released around 10 days ago, with more people saying they are undecided or failing to respond.

The “Yes” side has dropped only slightly from its 55.3% support on September 15, while the “No” contingent previously sat at 38.3%. Of note, however, is that “Yes” has fallen sharply from the 64.8% seen in Datexco’s September 9 poll results. “No” has surged from the low of 28.1% reported on September 9.

There is very little difference in the data along gender or economic lines, but regional differences are profound. In what the company classifies as its “Bogotá region” around the capital, 62.4% say they plan to approve the peace deal.

But the “No” vote reigns in Colombia’s eastern and northwest regions. Less than a third support the deal in the east, with 60.9% planning to vote against the accord. The northwest doesn’t have a “No” majority, at 47.0%, but it is still polling above the 42.1% support seen for the “Yes” side.

Another recent poll, by Ipsos, suggests an even bigger landslide. Its data shows “Yes” polling at 66% compared to 34% for “No” among likely voters nationwide. A little more than half (56%) of eligible voters surveyed said they plan to participate in the referendum, with older Colombians being more likely to go to the ballot.

A Gallup poll released last week was in line with Ipsos’ findings. It showed 67% support for “Yes” compared to 32% for “No.”

Due to a restriction from the National Election Council, these will be the final opinion polls conducted by the firms before the vote this Sunday. As is typical in the days surrounding elections in Colombia, the “ley seca” prohibition on alcohol sales will also be in effect on Saturday and Sunday.


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