Colombia is currently transitioning from the dry conditions of El Niño to the wet season characteristic of La Niña, bringing significant climatic challenges. This shift threatens to cause floods, tropical cyclones, and landslides, with the rainy season already leading to a dike collapse in the La Mojana region.
After enduring months of dryness marked by fires and droughts, the onset of the rainy season has brought new concerns. Recently, the collapse of the CareGato dike in La Mojana resulted in flooding across several towns, affecting approximately 4,000 families in 11 municipalities spanning Antioquia, Córdoba, Sucre, and Bolívar.
While El Niño is associated with high temperatures and droughts, and that has resulted in water rationing in the Colombia capital, La Niña is expected to bring intense rainfall and cooler temperatures, particularly in the Andean, Caribbean, and Pacific regions, as well as the foothills of the Eastern Plains. The Eastern regions of Colombia, including the vast Orinoquía and Amazonia, will experience milder weather patterns during La Niña.
Although the current rainy season from April to June hasn’t reached La Niña levels, meteorologists predict a stronger season ahead that will impact transportation infrastructure, including completion of G4 highways. “There is a 69% probability that the La Niña phenomenon will manifest between July and September,” stated Jorge Jiménez Sánchez, deputy director of meteorology at IDEAM. This shift is expected to bring not only more rain but also coincides with a highly active tropical hurricane season across the Caribbean.
Even before the peak of the rainy season, milder precipitation has already raised alarms. IDEAM reports that 183 municipalities are on red alert for landslides, with the majority in Antioquia. Alerts span from Chocó on the Pacific coast to Bolívar in the Caribbean, Boyacá in the center, and Norte de Santander in the east. In total, 673 municipalities, more than half of Colombia, are on alert for potential landslides.
The rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña leaves little time for recovery, posing significant risks to populations and agriculture. Experts from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warn that this swift change could bring droughts and an intense hurricane season across South America, impacting key crops like wheat and corn. The typical weather pattern cycle of El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase usually spans two to seven years, but the transition period is becoming shorter, heightening the urgency for preparedness.
