Colombia’s conservative backlash stumps Petro

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Embracing the podium at the Tequendama hotel in Bogotá, Petro’s words were worth a thousand pictures. After asking supporters to lower their cellphones so that TV cameras could zoom in on the presidential candidate, Petro’s “victory speech” was anything but. Having won 8.5 million votes on Sunday, or more than 40%, the expression of the leftist leader and those of his family, including VP running mate Francia Márquez, appeared dour, almost on the verge of tears.

Framed by a huge monitor proclaiming “We are 8,527.049,” Petro reiterated that the voting day was “one of triumph,” even though the numbers did not convince his closest aides nor spectators.

In the 2018 run-off against right-wing candidate Iván Duque, Petro lost with a vote count of 8 million to Duque’s 10.3 million. As the former Mayor of Bogotá and ex-guerrilla commander of the M-19 approaches the finish line in his third presidential bid, the phantom 41% has appeared on the horizon. Percentage point that has shunned the Senator in almost every poll since the election season gained momentum more than seven months ago. And one that for Petro started on the eve of President Duque’s victory speech four years ago.

The phantom 41% appeared again for Petro on Tuesday night, with the first poll released by the National Consulting Centre (CNC) and CM& News Network, putting him in second place with 39% of voting intention, compared to 41% in favor of the ultra-conservative, former Mayor of Bucaramanga Rodolfo Hernández.  In what is being called the “Rodolfo effect” in these elections, after the pro-business, real-estate magnate won 5.9 million votes, on Tuesday the Colombian peso strengthened 156 points to close at 3,770 to the U.S dollar.

The Colombian currency was trading most of May above 4,000 to the greenback. “In general terms, the markets received the election results of Sunday quite calmly, even optimistically,” stated Bruce Mac Master, president of the National Association of Colombian Entrepreneurs (Andi), and highlighted that that the drop of more than $100 pesos in the exchange rate “reflects that there is not going to be a significant increase in the outflow of capital, or significant reduction in terms of debt or investment.”

Mac Master’s analysis of the markets comes as voters understand the election maths, in which Hernández will reap every vote of the 5 million for Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez, as well as more than a million cast for centrist Sergio Fajardo (888,585) and conservatives John Milton (274,250) and Enrique Gómez (50,539).

As was expected, Hernández welcomed “Fico” supporters and the former Mayor of Medellín’s vote. Despite Fajardo’s VP candidate Luis Gilberto Murillo endorsing Petro’s Historic Pact, the official frontrunner of the center-left Coalition for Hope appears to be inching towards the conservative leader, and has been offered a high-profile portfolio in a Hernández administration. Minister of Education, perhaps? Role that the seasoned Ph.D in Mathematics is tailored for.

If anyone knows about probabilities and pure logic, Fajardo’s 888,000 votes, plus those of “Fico” would guarantee Hernández the Colombian Presidency with a total vote count of 12 million, or more. This reality has dumbfounded Petro and his 8.5 million supporters. Hence, the maligned atmosphere inside Tequendama, and overriding sense that reaching a majority mandate on June 19 remains as elusive as the phantom 41 percent.