Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro has thrust the long-standing dispute over the Essequibo territory into the forefront of South American geopolitics. This move not only threatens the delicate diplomatic balance between Guyana and Venezuela but also risks escalating into a broader regional conflict with potential involvement from countries like Brazil and Colombia.
Maduro’s sudden push to claim the mineral-rich Essequibo is driven by a desire to bolster Venezuela’s oil reserves with the easing of U.S. sanctions to secure free and fair elections in 2024. Despite mounting pressure from Western governments, including Washington, to recognize candidate María Corina Machado, Maduro remains obstinate and continues to persecute the opposition. To preempt his economic debacle, he has directed the state oil company PDVSA to issue extraction licenses in the disputed territory and urged the National Assembly to pass a bill incorporating the area into Venezuela.
In response, Guyana has placed its defense forces on high alert, with President Irfaan Ali seeking intervention from the UN Security Council, citing an imminent threat to Guyana’s territorial integrity. The situation has reached a critical point, with over 95% of voters in Venezuela’s recent referendum supporting the establishment of a new state in the Essequibo region, despite a meager voter turnout.
Venezuela’s historical claim to Essequibo, dating back to an 1899 decision that awarded the region to the UK, has been a longstanding point of contention. The matter is currently before the International Court of Justice, although Venezuela questions the court’s authority to rule on it. The court has cautioned Venezuela on many occasions against taking any military action that could destabilize a long-standing status quo in Essequibo.
The discovery of oil and gas near Guyana’s maritime borders back in 2015, estimated at 11 billion barrels, as well as the presence of U.S. oil exploration companies in the territory, has intensified the dispute, especially after Guyana auctioned exploration licenses to international operators for those waters in September. Guyana’s economic prosperity, driven by oil production and mineral exports, has made it one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, while Venezuela’s prolonged economic crisis remains crippled by fiscal management, corruption, and falling oil-and-gas production.
Maduro’s announcement of the annexation of Essequibo through the creation of a new province has set off the alarm bells with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva concerning a potential military confrontation. By appointing Major-General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello as the provisional authority, Maduro signals a readiness to enforce his expansionist claims. A move that has been coupled with a display of military presence near the disputed area. The Bolivarian Republic affirms that despite mobilizing its armed forces, the foreign ministry is keeping “communication channels open” with the former British overseas colony.
As the war narrative unfolds, with conflicting actions like the raising and lowering of flags in the mountainous rainforest, Maduro’s destabilizing actions appear to have a shadow proxy: Russia. Unleashing a territorial conflict in South America, and one that will draw Russia closer into the regional security fold, the land-grab will be accompanied by a disinformation campaign in favor of the Venezuelan regime, and similar in size to the deluge of propaganda from the Kremlin against Ukraine and, most recently, Israel.
More than two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, a war that has claimed the lives of more than 300,000 Russian soldiers (according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces), as well as Putin’s shadow games in backing Hamas through its ally Iran, the Essequibo crisis not only threatens the peace between Guyana and Venezuela but potentially puts the security of a Washington ally at risk based on the small South American nation’s track record in denouncing Russian interventionism overseas and on the continent.
In March 2022, Guyana voted at an emergency session of the United General Assembly to demand the full withdrawal of Russian forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Eastern Ukraine. Venezuela did not vote, not even abstain. Guyana’s close allies are the U.S, UK, France and Brazil.
With a front along Eastern Ukraine, and Russia’s online disinformation campaign to discredit Israel after the terror attack on October 7, the role of Russian media in legitimizing the actions of Hamas, and other extremist organizations entrenched throughout the Middle East, is a sinister calling card for what could unfold online with the Essequibo annexation.
The military balance in an eventual invasion, which would be as illegal as Russia’s pretext for taking Ukraine, heavily favors Venezuela, given that the country has an estimated 120,000 members in its armed forces, as well as civilian paramilitary factions, referred to as “collectives.”
For Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, who has visited Maduro five times on Venezuelan soil since taking office 16 months ago, a military incursion of the disputed territory will not be condemned, given that the leftist leader never denounced the illegal invasion of Ukraine, nor has he yet to condemn Hamas for slaughtering more than 1,200 Israelis in a single day.
President Petro during his recent visit to Caracas announced that Colombia’s energy giant Ecopetrol will seal an exploration partnership with PDVSA to extract natural gas and light crude from Venezuelan fields, untapped fields that now appear to be located deep in the Essequibo.
Despite real risks for U.S. oil companies that the world’s largest reserves could be out of reach should the Biden administration impose new sanctions on Maduro, for Colombia, any “new energy partnership” would have to recognize the Essequibo as a de facto province of Venezuela. The Colombia-Venezuela energy deal, which Petro claims will reduce the price of gas and fuel at home, also paves the way for Maduro to maintain his grip on power, even should Corina Machado win the popular vote.
By replacing external revenue lost with U.S sanctions with new exploration contracts in the disputed territory, the Venezuela-Colombia partnership sidesteps Washington and hands over to Russia greater participation in the security of northern South America. Colombia’s role in the Essequibo crisis will be one of reaping the spoils of war, through greater environmental destruction and pollution, and betraying the sovereign integrity of an independent state – Guyana – in the defense of Petro’s “climate change” agenda.
About the author: Martin Holland is an security advisor and international affairs expert based in Bogotá, Colombia.
