In a significant development since Edmundo González clinched the presidency of Venezuela on July 28, Colombia is reportedly on the verge of proposing an “initial good faith agreement” to facilitate negotiations between Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and the opposition led by González and María Corina Machado. This potential agreement comes as the integrity of Venezuela’s democracy has been smashed by Maduro, the military, and the National Election Council.
The news, first reported by The Washington Post over the weekend, suggests that Colombia is actively working behind the scenes to bring the Chavista government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition closer together. The proposal reportedly centers on a quid pro quo arrangement: the Venezuelan regime would commit to releasing all political prisoners and halting the persecution of opposition figures in exchange for a partial lifting of the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union.
According to unnamed sources cited in the Wahsington Post article, the agreement is not just a simple exchange of favors. The first move would have to be made by Maduro, who would need to demonstrate his good intentions by taking concrete actions before any sanctions relief would be considered. This cautious approach reflects the international community’s skepticism about Maduro’s track record on human rights and democratic principles.
The timing of this proposed agreement is critical. Over the past few years, Venezuela has been mired in a political and economic crisis that has only deepened under Maduro’s presidency. Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU were designed to pressure the Venezuelan government into restoring democratic norms, including holding free and fair elections as stiplulated under the Barbados Accord. However, these efforts have so far yielded little progress, and both Colombia’s leftist leader, Gustavo Petro, and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, have lost diplomatic terrain with Maduro.
Just last year, Washington briefly lifted some sanctions in October, hoping to encourage negotiations that would lead to free elections and allow opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won her party’s primaries, to participate. Unfortunately, this move did not lead to the desired outcomes. Instead, the U.S. was forced to reimpose sanctions in April after Maduro failed to honor the agreement.
The Biden administration’s stance on Venezuela has been one of cautious engagement, supporting diplomatic efforts led by regional powers like Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico. These countries have been at the forefront of seeking a resolution to the crisis that erupted after the disputed July 28 elections in Venezuela. In that election, the opposition won over 67% of the vote and provided evidence to support their victory, but the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, without presenting the necessary acts to validate the results.
This discrepancy has led to widespread condemnation and calls for international intervention. The U.S. government has already recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the rightful winner and is pushing for a peaceful transition of power.
The involvement of Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico in brokering a deal is seen as a positive step, given their proximity and vested interest in stabilizing the region. According to sources within the Biden administration, these nations have been encouraged to take a firmer stance against Maduro. However, there is a growing concern that despite verification from the prestigious Carter Center that Maduro stole the election, Washington’s “carrot-and-stick” policy in the region is not enough.
As one U.S. government official reportedly told the Washington Post: “Two weeks have passed since the elections, and they haven’t been able to present anything. We can’t keep focusing on them publishing the results. We all know what happened, and the only thing left to negotiate is the regime’s exit.”
This sentiment underscores the frustration felt by many in the international community who see Maduro’s regime as increasingly intransigent. The recent reports that the U.S. is considering offering a pardon to Maduro and other senior officials in exchange for their departure from power only add to the complexity of the situation. Washington has long placed a meagre US$15 million bounty on Maduro’s capture and has multiple legal cases against him for drug trafficking, money laundering, and corruption.
The idea of offering concessions to Maduro has sparked debate, particularly among Republican lawmakers who argue that it rewards hardline regimes. Yet, others see it as a pragmatic solution to an intractable problem. For the opposition leader María Corina Machado, however, any negotiation that leads to a repeat of the elections is unacceptable. She maintains that the results of the July 28 vote were clear, and the only viable path forward is for Maduro to accept his defeat.
On the other side, Maduro remains defiant, insisting on the legitimacy of his hollow “victory”. His refusal to negotiate casts a shadow over the prospects of a peaceful resolution to a crisis of Maduro’s own making.
As Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico continue to explore a diplomatic solution, María Corina Machado has vowed that González will take the oath of office on January 10, 2025. “Edmundo González will be the new head of state and the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, and that depends on what we all do, all Venezuelans inside and outside the country (…) I trust in the people of Venezuela,” she told EFE.
Whether Colombia’s proposed “good faith agreement” will succeed remains to be seen, but the stakes could not be higher given that Machado announced worldwide protests against the fraud committed by Maduro. “On Saturday, August 17, we will take to the streets of Venezuela and the world,” she said, while appealing to those who “have lost someone dear as a result of the regime’s violence”.
Machado urged Venezuelans to print their voting certificates to carry with them next Saturday and thereby demonstrate that over eight million supported González Urrutia at the polls. “Let the world see, voting records in hand, that we will not allow ourselves to be robbed,” highlighted Machado.
Colombia’s Gustavo Petro has yet to recognize González as the legitimate president-elect of Venezuela, and should his “good faith” deal face defeat with both the regime and opposition, Petro’s contribution to regional stability could be reduced to buying extra-time for Maduro and his henchmen to perpetrate even more crimes against the Venezuelan people.
