Colombia is experiencing one of the sharpest demographic shifts in its history, with birthrates plunging by over a third in the last decade, raising concerns over the country’s economic future and the strain an aging population could place on public services.
According to new data released by the national statistics agency, Dane, 453,901 babies were born in Colombia last year, a decline of 12% compared with 2023 and 31.3% lower than in 2015. That represents more than 200,000 fewer births in just 10 years.
The trend shows little sign of stabilizing. Preliminary figures from the first seven months of 2025 recorded 243,870 births, down 6.6% from the same period in 2024. If the pace continues, Colombia could end this year with its lowest number of births in modern history.
“This is a structural shift, not a temporary fluctuation,” stated the Bogotá-based economic think tank Anif. “Families are smaller, more people are delaying or avoiding parenthood, and the costs of raising children are simply too high.”
Cost of living, lifestyle changes
Researchers point to a range of factors behind the decline. The rising cost of living – from housing to healthcare to education – is consistently cited as the main deterrent. “Criar un hijo es demasiado caro” (“raising a child is too expensive”), was the leading response to a recent survey conducted by El Colombiano newspaper.
Other reasons include changing lifestyles. More Colombians are choosing to live alone or remain in smaller households, while many prioritize careers or higher education over early family formation. The country has also seen a marked cultural shift toward later marriage or foregoing it entirely.
These patterns reflect a broader phenomenon across Latin America, where fertility rates have fallen sharply in recent decades. In Colombia, the fertility rate is now estimated at around 1.6 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable without immigration.
Colombia’s demographic shift mirrors a global trend. Fertility rates that averaged five children per woman in the 1970s have fallen to 2.2 worldwide today. The global average is projected to slip below replacement level by 2050, far earlier than the United Nations had previously forecast.
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), in its State of the World Population report released in June, warned that the reasons behind the decline go beyond cultural changes. Of the 14,000 people surveyed in 14 countries across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, 39% cited financial limitations as the main factor preventing them from having children. Job insecurity was cited by 21% and fears about the future – including climate change and war – by 19%.
“Fertility decline is not primarily about people rejecting parenthood,” UNFPA said. “It is about people being denied the opportunity to form the families they want.”
Countries such as South Korea, which now has the world’s lowest fertility rate, have rolled out aggressive incentives including housing subsidies and child allowances, with limited success. European nations like Italy and Spain have also struggled to reverse declines despite pro-family policies.
For Colombia, the demographic challenge could reshape its labor market, pension system and healthcare infrastructure in the coming decades. A shrinking younger generation means fewer workers to support a growing elderly population, potentially straining public finances and slowing economic growth.
The country’s population, currently above 50 million, is still growing, but at a much slower pace. Projections suggest it could peak around mid-century before facing a sharp deceleration.
Demographers also caution that the social consequences are likely to emerge gradually but persistently. “It’s not tomorrow, but in 20 years the impact will be clear,” said economist María Fernanda Silva of the Universidad de los Andes. “Colombia risks entering the same cycle that developed nations face – aging populations with fewer taxpayers to sustain pensions, healthcare and social programs.”
With the focus on tackling the internal conflict and economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment, successive Colombian governments have yet to devise a comprehensive strategy toward long-term population decline. “This is not just a Colombian issue – it’s a global realignment of demographics,” concludes Anif. “But the speed of the change in Colombia makes it particularly urgent to consider how to adapt.”
