The publication of the 800 page historical account compiled by a group of 12 academics and historians on the causes and implications of Colombia’s internal armed conflict has been published and the findings are out there for everyone to peruse. Did we learn anything new?
Those of us observing the Colombian conflict and with an enhanced knowledge of the country will already have recognized the causes as a result of a weak and corrupt state, inequality in the country and the practice of political exclusion and that it has been exacerbated by the influence of various international actors and drug trafficking. While the document presented nothing ground-breaking it is a relief to see this information so visibly in the public domain.
And while those members of the FARC negotiating team comfortably ensconced in Havana, Cuba must be wallowing in the fervid glow of self-congratulatory celebration upon hearing that United States’ foreign policy in funding and sustaining the so-called war on drugs has been identified in the document and is in part to blame for the continuation of the conflict, there must also be alarm bells sounding for Messrs Marquez, Catatumbo, Paris and co.
The mild optimism towards the subscription of a peace agreement between the government and the FARC will continue, but, the visit of former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan to Colombia and Cuba did not go unnoticed. Additionally, we must not underestimate the nomination of Bernard Aronson, the United States’ first special envoy to the Colombian peace process. Annan’s visit and Aronson’s role have brought the dialogues into new territory and one where finances for a post conflict situation will be far more important as a potential agreement nears, and indeed, we must presume that legal discussions are well underway regarding Colombia’s judicial system and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
We can only speculate as to what may happen as the dialogues flesh out further just as we must clarify the language and political games being played out.
“Para los guerrilleros, cero cárcel.”
It is undeniable that the FARC is responsible for thousands of non-combatant killings, kidnappings, forced displacements, landmine casualties, child combatants, and other acts that have left behind a nation in tatters and countless victims. The group’s leaders and negotiators appear to be in denial about this. Their statements all too often convey the message that “we are victims too.” At the moment we are in a phase of political punch lines carefully scripted to shock and the Colombian public is tiring of this.
If we take into account the discussions of the Ley de Justicia y Paz, as well as the constitutional reform to include transitional justice (Marco Legal para la Paz), we can infer that the role of the ICC has been present. The Colombian government has spent a lot of diplomatic effort in portraying its model as exemplary and in accordance with the principles of the Rome Statute and international human rights. Regardless of our opinion towards this, one cannot see a “blank slate” of impunity as a viable or sustainable option. What happens in practice, however, remains to be seen.
For the negotiations to continue, the peace process must continue benefiting from public support inside Colombia. If it becomes unpopular, it risks becoming unattainable. The aforementioned declaration by Iván Márquez is particularly unhelpful, lacking in contrition and smacking of arrogance and hands easy material and fuel to those in opposition to the talks. Against this backdrop of hysteria as the naysayers and opponents shriek about impunity and the ills of castro chavismo, remember this, there is no doubting the fact that there will be guerrillas who see the inside of a jail cell and that their time spent there could be considerable.
The FARC is not the only offender who must show more contrition. FARC leaders continually and correctly point out that other armed groups have caused massive victimization, even exceeding their own bloody toll. Taking together guerrillas, paramilitaries, and the state security forces, more than six million Colombians have lost loved ones; been kidnapped, maimed, or tortured; been displaced; or otherwise suffered directly from the conflict.
If the Colombian justice system continues to flip flop in the manner which we have already seen in the debate surrounding crimes committed by the military, Colombia will fall afoul of the ICC. Remember that the fact that ICC crimes have non-statutory limitations so they have an unlimited margin of time to observe local criminal prosecutions and eventually determine if they should intervene in specific cases. It does not really matter what Iván Márquez says to the press in coming days, as I have already mentioned, it is part of the game. We cannot be completely sure what is going on behind those closed doors in Havana, but, you can be certain that if we do reach a final agreement in 2015 or 2016, there will be those present who are going to jail.
In layman’s terms, the statute of Rome means that there is no longer a place for vast amnesties as would have occurred in the past; today international humanitarian law will be exercised.
So, as the negotiations in Havana continue, and perhaps we begin to note that the FARC themselves understand that they are not the purveyors of social justice that so many years in the jungle has led them to believe, we know that those guerrillas who have any connection to heinous acts which can be considered as genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes will be found guilty. It seems clear to me that Timochenko has a cadre of younger, academic guerrillas, being trained to take over an eventually visible and public political wing of the FARC and that these young faces will have been kept far away and totally disconnected to crimes that the ICC could then follow up on from a resulting future truth commission.
So please, when Iván Mearquez or one of his ilk makes a statement of this nature, don’t believe the media hype. Guerrillas will go to prison.
