I used to think I had talent for forecasting the future. But my clairvoyant prowess has waned with the volatility of the Colombian peso. So, until further notice, currency prediction has been shelved. In January, however, on these very pages, I did claim that the peso could break through the $3,400 peso to the dollar mark by April. I came up short. Yesterday’s estimate is now yesterday’s news.
Talking about currency devaluation hardly brings out the best in Colombians, and patience with the peso is running thin. We braced ourselves for a good flogging of our money last year. And even as oil continues its downward slide and investors ditch China, water, El Niño and a malicious mosquito are top of mind for many.
And with good reason.
Thirty municipalities across the country have run out of water and the drought in the already-arid La Guajira peninsula is becoming more acute, threatening the lives of the most young and vulnerable.
China’s meltdown has been replaced by fears of Chikungunya and the voracious Zika. These mosquito-borne vi- ruses are spreading like wild fire across the region, with symptoms ranging from numbing headaches to full-body rashes to exacerbating pains in every muscle and joint. I too am one of the statistics.
It was a short trip to the Colombian coast. I love the sea, so feeling seriously deprived of a beach, I decided a few days in Cartagena could revitalize my senses. I returned to Bogota? a wreck. A nano Aedes aegypti had found an unprepared victim. I spent months trying to get back on my feet.
A few not-so-cold days in Canada gave me time to hibernate. But hindsight is everything. As much as I love the tropics, I’m heading this year into the hills. The snow-capped peaks of El Cocuy are calling.
But why worry about events in Davos when in the land of dengues? Why stress out over the peso peaking in summer at COP$4,000 to the dollar when you can vacation in misty mountains where guerrillas once roamed. If the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) stick to their rapidly shrinking timeline for peace, the horizon’s our limit. All will be possible the day after March 23 — with plenty of Zika mosquito repellent.
February is film month in Colombia and expectations are running high that Ciro Guerra’s critically acclaimed feature “Embrace of the Serpent” might clinch Best Foreign-Language Film during the 88th Academy Awards. Congratulations to Mr. Guerra are in order for his epic tale of shamanic adventures in the Colombian Amazon by botanists-turned-explorers Theodor Koch-Gru?nberg and Richard Evans Schultes. Another sign that once peace is put on paper, we can venture off to the other half of this country.
The decision by the Colombian government to sell power giant Isagen S.A last month was sharply criticized as a “sellout” to the Canadians. Nobody likes to see a cash cow go astray, especially one worth several billions. But Colombia, in line with many resource-rich nations, needs extra spending money at this moment in its fiscal history.
Independent of an investment bank walking away with the country’s third-largest power generator, the money from this sale will be invested by the government in a privately operated fund to build more than 7,000 km of Fourth Generation highways. So as early as 2019, we’ll be able to cruise down ultra-modern roads, cutting dis- tances through mountains thanks to 140 new tunnels and 1,300 viaducts.
By the time we can reach Barranquilla in under eight hours, we should also be Zika-free.
Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas has taken plenty of flak on the peso, but to his credit, maybe it’s been best to let the money float. A long-term strategy of investing locally and managing the coffers with specialized transnational equity funds not only boosts confidence in large infrastructure financing between the government and the private sector, but it will also generate much-needed employment in the regions.
Cardenas’ strategy looks to hedge Colombia from its over-dependence on fossil fuels and adverse market forces. In short, his is a nation-building vision and an urgent one on the eve of the post-conflict.
I’m going to put “my hand in the fire” for Cardenas on this one. I am going to trust that when we go 4G it ain’t “lite.” That Colombia’s reputation on the world stage isn’t a fleeting “And the winner is…” ridicule. So as we take our place in the sun and watch the show unfold, let’s hope it rains soon. As for Zika there’s still no cure. You have now been warned.
