Venezuela without Chávez?

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Hugo Chavez by Walter Vargas
Hugo Chavez in June 2012 by Walter Vargas

After announcements on Monday that Venzuelan president Hugo Chávez remains in a “delicate” state following new complications from surgery related to his ongoing cancer fight, Venezuelans and the country’s neighbors anxiously awaited news of the leader’s status. Sources suggest that the complications may be the result of a pulmonary infection and that his condition has steadily deteriorated throughout the day.

Lacking concrete information, social networks lit up on the last day of 2012 with messages of support for Chávez from some, in addition to cautious hopes from others that his health complications might usher in a new era of government in Venezuela. Members of the Venezuelan government suspended New Year’s celebrations and attended mass to pray for recovery.

What do you think a Venezuela without Hugo Chávez would look like? Tell us by commenting below.

Hugo Chavez at a rally in October 2012 by Luigino Bracci

Despite surprisingly robust health during his most recent campaign (seen here in October 2012), Chávez’s ability to lead remains in question going into the New Year.

If Chávez were to pass away in the near future, he would be replaced in the short term by current Vice President Nicolas Maduro, a leader who seems to share much of the president’s ideology if not his charismatic nature and ability to inspire a fervent following. The nation would be constitutionally required to hold elections within 30 days of the president’s death.

Even if he manages to pull through current complications, the fact remains that Chávez has undergone four surgeries in the past year and a half. Many politicians have called for him to step down, citing prolonged absences and a questionable ability to govern giving the condition of his health. His inauguration for a fourth six-year term is scheduled for January 10.

Leading the nation with a decidedly socialist agenda for the past 14 years, Chávez has been a vocal opponent of North American and European political and economic intervention in South America, often starkly contrasting with neighbor Colombia’s more open economic policies.

Several analysts have speculated that a weaker Maduro administration could gradually lead the nation toward a more economically open era, noting that many of Venezuela’s current policies may have more to do with the leadership of Chávez himself than the ideology of the country’s citizens.

The nation’s most recent elections in October 2012 were somewhat tighter than in the past, with opposition leader Henrique Capriles managing to capture 44 percent of the popular vote. Capriles ran on a Brazilian-influenced mixture of social consciousness and nationalistic capitalism.

Increased capitalism in Venezuela could have a particularly dramatic impact in Colombia, where an embrace of foreign investment has led to notable economic growth over the past decade. Colombia is one of the closest allies of the United States in Latin America.

While relations between the United States and Venezuela warmed considerably after the election of president Barack Obama in 2008, Chávez remains steadfast in his opposition to what he deems an “imperialist” nation. Both the United States and Colombia import foreign oil, some of which comes from Venezuela, which owns about a quarter of OPEC’s total reserves.

Regardless of what happens in the next few days, it seems inevitable that Venezuela will undergo some dramatic changes in the New Year.

 

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